One of the readers of Talking Points Memo provided a simple but compelling analysis of the preferences expressed in the public polls of the Indiana Democratic party presidential nomination contest primary.
“I think if you read the polling results of the various Indiana polls carefully, they are not as variable and contradictory as they might first appear. Nearly every poll in the last week has put Obama’s number within one or two points of 43%. On the other hand, Clinton’s numbers have varied much more dramatically in the 42-54% range. That variation tends to correlate negatively with the number of undecideds. So it would seem that what’s going on is both candidates have solid bases of support in the low 40s, but when you start pushing less firm voters, they go overwhelmingly for Clinton (an indication that Zogby himself has also acknowledged). This still isn’t very good news for Obama, but it does mean that pushing his supporters out and changing a few minds gives him a decent shot at keeping Indiana close. “
Tags: Clinton, Democratic party primary, Indian primary, Obama, U.S. Presidential elections
